2020 Trade Deadline First-Round Pick Analysis

How the first-round picks traded at this year's deadline are affected moving forward due to the Covid-19 pause.

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2020 Trade Deadline Analysis – 1st Round Picks

1. Carolina Hurricanes trade a conditional 2020 1st round pick to the New York Rangers for Brady Skjei.

*Conditions - Rangers to receive the later (or lower) of either the Hurricanes or Leafs 2020 1st Round Picks.

The Carolina Hurricanes added to an already-impressive defensive core at the deadline by acquiring Brady Skjei from the New York Rangers. The 26-year-old, first-round pick of the Rangers will get the chance to flourish in the Hurricanes organization for years to come playing special teams and dominating in puck possession numbers at even strength. On the other side, the Rangers will obtain a first-rounder from either the Leafs or Hurricanes. Skjei was drafted 28th overall, so a similar return to the Rangers may be on the horizon – A fair trade for both sides. Skjei will be earning $5.25M until the 2023-2024 season.

Result – Hurricanes pick would transfer since it is currently less favorable than the Leafs pick.

2. Tampa Bay Lightning trade a 2020 1st round pick and Anthony Greco to the San Jose Sharks for Barclay Goodrow and a 2020 3rd round pick.

Each member of the Lightning organization would surely tell you they were all in this year. The pieces were in place for a cup run and Tampa Bay was arguably the best team in the NHL before the pause. Adding the dynamic 27-year-old at the Trade Deadline to an already bolstered forward group would have given the opposition plenty to handle. Goodrow is a player that would be able to maneuver through the lineup and brings just the style of play that Tampa has been searching for. Under a cap-friendly contract of just $925k until the end of the 2021 season, the Lightning may have to wait one more year for their experiment to come full circle. Unfortunately, their elite talent will be one year older and in need of several contract extensions leaving their long-term future in jeopardy if the cards aren’t played right.

Result - Remains in Tampa’s draft lottery position.

3. New York Islanders trade a conditional 2020 1st round pick, 2020 2nd round pick and a 2022 conditional 3rd round pick to the Ottawa Senators for Jean-Gabriel Pageau.

*Conditions - If the Islanders win the draft lottery and select Top 3, the pick becomes a 2021 1st Round Pick. The 2020 conditional 3rd rounder is transferred if the New York Islanders win the 2020 Stanley Cup.

Arguably the biggest trade of the deadline, the Islanders snagged Pageau from the Senators, but the price was a hefty one. Although there are several conditions attached to this trade, Lou Lamoriello was able to sign the 27-year-old to a six-year, $30M contract negating any questions of whether or not he would ultimately sign with the team. Posting a career-high in goals with 24 during the 19'-20' season, Pageau proved he could carry the weight and be a leader in the offensive department – An area the Islanders are in desperate need of improvement. Not only is he an underrated two-way forward, but coach Barry Trotz will also find in him extremely valuable in his ability to win faceoffs. Pageau has posted no lower than a 51.2% faceoff percentage in each of the last four seasons, with his current season sitting at a phenomenal 55.7%. From each organization’s perspective, this trade can prove valuable for both sides. Ottawa’s upside is held with the first round and second-round picks and the Islanders add depth to their center position and adds versatility to their lineup. Pageau was drafted 96th overall by the Senators 2011, playing 428 games for the organization posting 87 goals and 95 assists.

Result - Pick would transfer because the Islanders pick is currently not in the Top 3.

4. Boston Bruins trade 2020 1st round pick, David Backes and Axel Andersson to the Anaheim Ducks for Ondrej Kase.

*Conditions - Bruins retain $1.5M in Backes contract.

Speaking of teams with a chance at winning the Stanley Cup, the Boston Bruins added an underrated piece to their offensive pedigree acquiring Ondrej Kase from the Anaheim Ducks. Despite playing only six games before the pause, Kase had found chemistry playing alongside fellow countrymen David Krejci on the Bruins second line and the second powerplay unit. Going the other way, veteran forward David Backes may see his final days in the NHL in Orange County playing for the Ducks – An incredible career for a well-respected player. Additionally, the Ducks received 20-year-old, right-shot defensemen, Axel Andersson. Praised by his strong skating and puck-moving ability, the Ducks are hoping that adding to the prospects pool can be a difference-maker on their backend for years to come. Overall, the Bruins appear to be the ones missing out early in this trade as Kase's contract only carries one more year at $2.6M.

Result - Remains in Boston’s draft lottery position.

5. Tampa Bay Lightning trade a conditional 2020 1st round pick and Nolan Foote to the New Jersey Devils for Blake Coleman.

*Conditions - If the Vancouver Canucks do not make the playoffs in the 19’-20’ season, the pick will transfer to a 2021 1st Round Pick.

Possibly the biggest head-scratcher of this year’s deadline, the price paid to acquire Blake Coleman left many around the league questioning if Tampa Bay gave up too much in this deal. Despite the incredible value you that Coleman brings on his contract – $1.8M cap hit until 2021 – it was evident that Tampa was driven to finish on top this year. Losing out on a deal like this could be astronomical for the Lightning, especially if the player’s contributions don’t reach the two-time 20 goal scorer’s average. Coleman had just 1 assist in the 9 games played for Tampa after the trade. The Lightning’s future remains in jeopardy knowing a majority of their core players are on the back-end of their careers. Paying the price of a first-round pick is a risk to any team, and Tampa needs to be cautious moving forward. Nolan Foote is a highly-touted prospect who could see NHL games next season. If the Devils can find their groove, the fountain of youth may carry New Jersey to a rebound season in 2021.

Result - Pick would not transfer because Vancouver is currently not in a playoff position.

6. Pittsburgh Penguins trade a conditional 2020 1st round pick, Alex Galchenyuk, and Calen Addison to the Minnesota Wild for Jason Zucker.

*Conditions - If Pittsburgh missed the playoffs in the 19’-20’ season, they have the option to send their 2021 1st Round Pick instead.

A typical Jim Rutherford-type trade made before the draft, the Penguins acquisition of Zucker is a seemingly perfect fit for a player like Sidney Crosby. With 6 goals and 6 assists through 15 games with the new club, the trade appeared to be working in Pittsburgh's favour. We may never find Zucker's production would continue into the playoffs but with the likes of Crosby, Malkin, and Letang leading the way, the compete level would certainly be there. From Minnesota's perspective, Alex Galchenyuk, the depleting 3rd overall pick in 2011, was off to a decent start with his new club. Being a UFA after this season, expectations were higher from the Penguins to be a contributor to their offense but unfortunately did not work to their favour. A question being raised is if Galchenyuk will ultimately sign with the KHL next season where he can make more money and find his offensive game again. The first-round pick moving to Minnesota is likely to fall into the latter portion of either the 2020 or 2021 draft, therefore re-signing Galchenyuk should be a priority for Bill Guerin and the Wild management. The winner of this trade will be determined down the road as it appears to be Pittsburgh’s ultimate success with Zucker as the deciding factor. A Stanley Cup win justifies a first-round pick for any organization and Pittsburgh’s proven playoff history leaves no doubt of a chance of winning in 2020.

Result - Pick transfer depends on whether or not the Penguins make the playoffs.

7. Arizona Coyotes trade conditional 2020 1st round pick, conditional 2021 3rd round pick, Nick Merkley, Nathan Schnarr, and Kevin Bahl to the New Jersey Devils for Taylor Hall and Blake Speers.

*Conditions - If Arizona’s 1st Round Selection is in the Top 3, New Jersey will receive Arizona’s 2021 1st Round Pick instead. Additionally, the 3rd Round Pick can upgrade to a 1st if Arizona re-signs Hall AND win a playoff round.

There is little doubt that adding an elite forward such as Taylor Hall for any team’s playoff run is important. The problem? Arizona may ultimately miss the playoffs. New Jersey showed there was little chance of re-signing the former Hart Trophy winner and took advantage of a tremendous return from the Coyotes. Although the first-rounder is Top 3 protected, it seems unlikely the Coyotes would jump up in the draft to select #1. With John Chayka paying the price he did, many of us were left wondering if the trade would be worth it for Arizona's future. If Hall doesn't re-sign, not only is there a gaping hole in the left-wing position but no high-end prospect coming into the organization either. Potentially the "swing and miss" trade of the 2019 season, the Coyotes never found their stride after the trade and are currently on the outside looking in. Additional to the first-rounder going to New Jersey, Nick Merkley is another piece that could prove the Coyotes wrong with a great chance of cracking the Devils roster in the upcoming years. A former 30th overall pick by the Coyotes, the speedy winger could find chemistry in the Devils bottom six and potentially make next year’s opening roster. If Hall doesn’t re-sign with Arizona, Chayka’s job could be in jeopardy. An already average forward group with Hall in the lineup would look even worse without him.

Result - Pick would transfer because Coyotes pick is currently not in the Top 3.

8. Vancouver Canucks trade a 2019 3rd round pick, (Hugo Alnefelt), Marek Mazanec and a conditional 2020 1st round pick to the Tampa Bay Lightning for JT Miller.

*Conditions - If the Canucks do not make the playoffs in the 19’-20’ season, the 1st Round Pick transfers to a 2021 pick instead.

It was assumed that Tampa had their centre position filled with the rise of both Brayden Point and Anthony Cirelli, therefore making Miler the odd man out. With a cap hit of $5.25M until the end of the 2023 season, Tampa could simply not afford to keep Miller in their loaded forward group. In steps Jim Benning to make one of the better trades in recent Canucks history. At the time, it is hard to believe Miller would be having a career year in Vancouver posting 27 goals and 45 assists through only 69 games (shattering his previous high of 56 points with the Rangers in 2016-2017). Additionally, Miller has become a leader in the dressing room and was even rumoured to be in talks of the vacant captaincy role before Bo Horvat was given the honour. Additionally, Vancouver used their 2019 3rd rounder to draft 6’3” Swedish goalie, Hugo Alnefelt, who has posted a respectable 2.57 GAA and .905 SV% through 18 games this year. If the Canucks find a way into the playoffs this year, Tampa Bay will get the 2020 first-rounder and can add to their prospects pool. The impact of Miller and what he has brought to the Canucks organization points to an early win of this trade.

Result - Pick would not transfer because the Canucks are not currently in a playoff position.

9. Carolina Hurricanes trade 2020 6th round pick to the Toronto Maple Leafs for Patrick Marleau, a conditional 2020 1st round pick and a 2020 7th round pick.

*Conditions - If the Leafs pick in in the Top 10 of the 2020 Draft, the Hurricanes will receive the Leafs 2021 1st Round Pick instead.

To financially afford signing star forward Mitch Marner, Kyle Dubas dug into his bag of tricks and moved veteran winger Patrick Marleau to the Hurricanes; Essentially becoming a trade-for-buyout deal. The move was inevitable as Marleau's $6.25M cap hit was simply not feasible for the Leafs moving forward with their plan. The Hurricanes appear to be the winners of this trade because of the first-round selection which is likely to come in the 2021 draft. The Leafs were stumbling into the playoffs having lost 8 of their last 15 games played and not showing the promise of having a successful playoff run. Since the Leafs had their player, the trade made sense for each party. Although the trade is largely based on the Leafs playoff success, the Hurricanes can turn some heads if they hit a diamond in the rough with their first-round selection. Patrick Marleau was bought out by the Hurricanes during the offseason, signed a one-year deal with San Jose, and has since been traded to the Pittsburgh Penguins at this year’s trade deadline.

Result - Pick would transfer because the Leafs pick is not currently in the Top 10.

Winners & Losers

Winners

Ironically, the biggest winner from the NHL pause may be the New Jersey Devils. Interim GM Tom Fitzgerald will end up with four 1st round picks between the 2020 and 2021 NHL Draft from trades involving Taylor Hall & Blake Coleman. Creating cap space is a priority for New Jersey this offseason and moving the likes of Cory Schneider, PK Subban and/or Travis Zajac, could produce approximately $20m in space (assuming salary is not retained). Adding newfound cap space to a team with a below-average salary cap could help the Devils rebuild be quicker than expected with a splash in free agency or trades. With a group including a stacked young core of Hischier, Hughes, Foote, Blackwood, and Butcher, the Devils seem to have found the right year to reach the bottom as the future seems brighter than originally expected. Will the Devils obtain two first-round picks in both the 2020 and 2021 drafts or will they move a pick in a trade?

Vancouver may turn out to be a winner after all is said and done with the JT Miller trade. Despite New Jersey owning the Canucks 1st Rounder in either the 2020 or 2021 season, it looks as though Jim Benning may not lose this first-rounder this year if they happen to miss the playoffs. Of course, the team would rather compete in the playoffs and obtain the 2021 first-round pick from New Jersey. Not only have the Canucks enjoyed the emergence in leadership and production of JT Miller but they were able to draft goalie prospect Hugo Alnefelt who could compete for the goaltending position for years to come. However, the biggest win for Jim Benning and the Canucks would be to remove the $6m contract of Loui Eriksson which runs to the end of the 2021-2022 season. Freeing up cap space could allow for another much-needed trade or player signing to their forward group.

Losers

Tampa Bay appears to be the head of the loser’s table having given up two first-rounders for Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow in the pursuit of their first cup win since 2004. With their “win now” attitude and the potential of a long playoff run, GM Julien Brisebois should not be blamed as the Lightning were arguably the NHL's best team before the freeze was implemented. This is why the pause hurts the Lightning franchise so much this year; This is simply out of their control. Although many signs point to playoff rebound for the Lightning, the NHL has demonstrated in the past that anything can happen. Shall I remind you of the Blue Jackets upset a mere one year ago? Burn off another contract year of their elite talent up front and core group being one year older, the season-ending in March could be the worst-case scenario for the Tampa Bay Lightning. With RFA’s Mikhail Sergachev and Anthony Cirelli in need of contract extensions before next season, management may be forced a plethora of difficult decisions regarding the immediate future. Will Tampa benefit from moving their first-round picks knowing they would likely fall later in the draft or will the future sort itself out? Time will tell.

Sitting in a close second at the loser's table is the Arizona Coyotes. John Chayka has a proven track record of not shying away from making a deal and it proved that again with the Taylor Hall trade. Paying the price of the first-rounder and not only missing the playoffs but potentially not re-signing Hall in the offseason could turn out to be a huge blow to the franchise. The Coyotes lineup is already a below-average group of forwards upfront even with Hall playing. Not re-signing Hall could have Chayka searching for another high-end forward next year with no 2020 1st rounder in play. Worse yet, he could be in search of a new job.