Early Predictions: 2020 NHL Awards

“I can’t speak for (other players),” he said Monday, when asked about the Oilers five-on-five struggles. “I can only talk for myself and obviously I know I’ve been pretty s— lately. Sorry about my words, there.” -- Leon Draisaitl on his difficult stretch at the end of the 2019 calendar year.

As fans anxiously await the return of NHL hockey, we are forced to generate conclusions of the NHL awards winners if the season were to not finish. The last time the Stanley Cup wasn't lifted dates back to the 2004-05 season of the lockout, a season at which many fans try to forget. Could we be forced to another disappointment of not having a winner if the Covid-19 pause cancels the remainder of the season? Only time will tell as the NHL and NHLPA work towards a solution, leaving fans to play the game of what if.

Since the majority of the season has been played, we can create a list of deserving candidates for each category., I fully encourage readers to have an open mind with the consideration that many games are left to be played since the awards are presented from majority voting. With that being said, a deeper dive into players worthy of nominations are discussed below:

Hart Trophy MVP

Arguably the most difficult award for the league to determine, the Hart Trophy signifies the player “adjudged to be the most valuable to his team". The assumption that this award is granted to the best player in the league or the individual finishing atop the league scoring is simply incorrect. A player like Nathan MacKinnon is one of the game’s best skaters and most elusive forwards in the league. Having the ability to produce at such a high-level deserves consideration in its own right and MacKinnon is inevitably the driving force of the Avalanche. However, the offensive metrics simply outweigh the defensive in MacKinnon’s favour as the 53-38 giveaway to takeover ratio can be used against him despite the amount of time he controls the puck each game. Although the significance of production skews voters into limited options, the eye-test should be equally important.

Queue Leon Draisaitl. Although playing with fellow superstar Connor McDavid provides a foreseeable uptick in production, voters’ opinions may be swayed. Currently sitting in the league lead with 110 points, Draisaitl has proven that he is no longer the sidekick in Edmonton. Carrying the weight of expectation is one thing, but driving an entire team without one of the game's best players in the lineup for six games during an all-important playoff run stands for itself – Exactly what he did during Connor’s late-season absence. Leon posted an incredible 12 points in six games and changed the belief that he wasn’t capable of driving the team himself. Draisaitl has averaged 22:37 TOI/GP throughout the season and is on pace for 127 points, one behind Nikita Kucherov’s 2018-19 performance for most points in the salary-cap era. Draisaitl has gained the league’s respect and is certainly deserving of this award. Where would the Oilers be without Draisaitl you ask? Not in a playoff position, if you ask me.

Hart Trophy Winner: Leon Draisaitl

Norris Trophy

The NHL’s best defensemen can often be perceived as the defensemen with the most points. Voters are faced with the difficult decision of defensive versus offensive metrics and at times are restricted to point production being a focal point of their argument. Producing offensively is noteworthy enough but holding their own in the defensive zone is a crucial part of being awarded the Norris Trophy.

The 2019-20 season appears to be a two-horse race between John Carlson and Roman Josi. A seemingly wire-to-wire favourite, Carlson has proven his importance to the Capitals franchise with yet another career-high in points with 75. Josi too had totaled a career-high of 65 points throughout the season. For clarification, I would choose either of these players on my team and each deserves the recognition they are given. Roman Josi posts the third-highest TOI per game amongst defensemen at 25:47, while John Carlson ranks 10th at 24:38 per game. In terms of special teams usage, each player is used heavily and are an important factor in their team's success. Undoubtedly, each player is a workhorse on the ice and can impact the game with every shift.

Washington posts the league’s second-best goals per game at 3.42 while Nashville sits at a league-average 3.07. The Capitals' offensively talented forward group aids in Carlson's production but his play leaves little doubt that he isn't a threat in his own right. All signs point to the Norris Trophy heading back to DC for just the third time in the award’s history.

Norris Trophy Winner: John Carlson

Calder Trophy

Not every year are we left to question the Calder trophy amongst more than two players. With the obvious front runners being Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar, Blackhawks forward Dominik Kubalik appears to be the odd man left out of the conversation. The rookie posted a noteworthy 30G and 16A in 68 games playing in a stacked Central Division. Despite playing with the likes of Patrick Kane and Jonathon Toews, Kubalik appears to be a proven natural goal scorer in the modern-day NHL. Reaching the 30-goal mark in a rookie season is impressive enough let alone becoming a threat on a highly-offensive group of forwards.

Having said that, only one player can be awarded the Calder Trophy. Both Hughes and Makar have made a drastic impact on their respective teams in a small time. The skating and edgework of each player is incredible to watch and the two defensemen will be forever tied together moving forward. Arguing one player is better than the other is asinine since their skillsets are next-level for players of such a young age. Hughes has allowed the Canucks organization to speed up the rebuild drastically while Makar has turned Colorado into an ultimate cup contender for years to come. The offensive forward group of the Canucks simply doesn’t compare to that of the Avalanche organization, a significant factor needing consideration. The Calder may be heading to the Hughes household after all, but not the brother we had anticipated heading into the season.

Calder Trophy Winner: Quinn Hughes

Frank J. Selke Trophy

Handed out to the forward that demonstrates the most skill in the defensive component of the game, the Frank J. Selke award is one of my favourites and rightfully so. Those in consideration of this award get it done at both ends of the ice and tend to be key contributors winning teams. Dating back to 2000, only two players have won the Selke Trophy and not lifted Lord Stanley at one point or another during their careers; Ryan Kesler and Michael Peca. The significance of having a forward dominate both ends of the ice speaks for itself and shouldn’t be overlooked. Much similar to years past, there are several players deserving recognition this season. Of the projected Selke race, just one player in the current Top 5 is out the playoff race; Phillip Danault of the Montreal Canadiens. In years to come, however, this list is going to have a few first-time winners – Looking at you Anthony Cirelli.

Last year’s winner, Ryan O’Reilly, has proven himself as one of the best two-way forwards in the league yet again. Posting a dominating Corsi Rating and faceoff percentage, O’Reilly records over 20 minutes per game against the opponent’s toughest matchups. Another player in the mix, Philadelphia Flyers forward Sean Couturier. Amongst the league’s most respected two-way forwards, Couturier proves his worth game after game while shutting down the top forwards in the NHL. Ranking #1 in faceoffs at an astonishing 59.6%, Couturier is a faceoff nightmare for any team and is relied on in all situations. Additionally, he ranks 1st in plus/minus and 2nd in team scoring posting a +21 and 59 points in 69 games. Step aside Ryan O’Reilly, the Selke is heading to Philly this year.

Frank J. Selke Trophy Winner: Sean Couturier

Vezina Trophy

The adage "show me a good coach and I'll show you a good goalie" may ring truer than ever this season. Playing goalie in the modern-day NHL may compete for the most difficult positions in sports as the pressure is becoming more immense by the year. Narrowing the list of candidates for this award is challenging due to the overall strength of their respected team. The quality of scoring chances against, shots per game and expected goals are all noteworthy statistics.

Each season tends to display an outlier and this year’s player is Winnipeg Jets’ Connor Hellebuyck. Of the goalies starting a minimum of 35 games, Hellebuyck ranks 2nd in save percentage with a .922 SV% and 6th in goals-against average with a 2.57 GAA. The Jets dealt with one of the worst seasons for man-games lost due to injury in quite some time and could have easily dropped several positions in the standings. A goalie dealing with an increased number of shots and high-quality chances is likely to have a down year but what happened in Winnipeg was the exact opposite. Rallying around the strong play of Hellebuyck, the Jets managed to stick around the playoff race and are currently sitting in the first wild-card spot in the Western Conference. Boston's Tuuka Rask and Tampa Bay's Andrei Vasilevskiy are both in the race ranking in the top 10 for wins. Hellebuyck has placed himself into the top tier of NHL goalies and it’s tough to not award his play this season.

Vezina Trophy Winner: Connor Hellebuyck

Jack Adams Trophy

Similar to the Vezina Trophy, the best coach in the league can be tough to narrow down because of factors such as team’s roster strength. The team’s success year-to-year, amongst others, contributes to receiving votes. Undeniably, two coaches deserving nomination for this award have to be John Tortorella of the Columbus Blue Jackets and Paul Maurice of the Winnipeg Jets

The Blue Jackets led the league by a wide margin in man-games lost this season, leaving Tortorella in a tough position. Similar to past teams, the Blue Jackets stepped up and demonstrated they were a talented enough group to compete and are currently positioned in the 2nd Wild Card spot. Having the likes of Matt Duchene, Artemi Panarin, and Sergei Bobrovsky signing elsewhere in the offseason, along with star defensemen Seth Jones missing a large part of the season, the Blue Jackets were essentially written off early to miss the playoffs. John Tortorella may have high demands but his team answered in a positive way posting a 33-22-15 record through 70 games.

As discussed earlier, the Winnipeg Jets dealt with their fair share of injuries as well. Having a blue line composed of mainly AHL players, the Jets found a way to compete and win hockey games. The Jets came into the pause winning four straight games and held a 6-3-1 record in their last ten games. Playing some of their best hockey of the season, Coach Maurice was pulling the right strings and the Jets responded with strong play. Currently, the Jets hold a record of 37-28-6 through 71 games, and having players return from injuries could provide the boost needed to push for a playoff position.

Jack Adams Trophy Winner: John Tortorella