In this four-part series of team X-Factors, we now examine the Metropolitan Division.
In case you missed it, here is the Atlantic Division Link: https://www.north6ix.ca/post/nhl-x-factors-part-1-atlantic-division
Carolina Hurricanes
Seth Jarvis
Originally selected with the draft pick in the Patrick Marleau deal with the Maple Leafs, Seth Jarvis found his way into the Hurricanes lineup and immediately made an impact. With an elite ability to push the pace and generate plays with his high hockey IQ, Jarvis adds a different element to the Canes roster they have been needing for a while; generating scoring chances. With a healthy Svechnikov and a fresh start to the season, the Hurricanes hope Jarvis is amongst this year's breakout players, taking Carolina to the elite tier of offensive teams around the league. Posting a 0.58 PPG in '21-'22 and then dropping to 0.48 PPG last season was a slight disappointment but there is a strong reason to think he will bounce back and set new career highs in both goals and points. A 60+ point season is very attainable if Jarvis stays healthy.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Zach Werenski
The Blue Jackets' powerplay has been underwhelming for quite some time, largely due to their minimal offensive talents. When Laine was traded to Columbus and Johnny Gaudreau signed, fans of the Blue Jackets expected the team to come together immediately. This wasn't the case and they had another disappointing season. Now with their star defensemen healthy and a coach that will demand maximum effort at both ends, Columbus seems primed to take a step in the right direction next season. Besides, Mike Babcock had the Maple Leafs in the top 8 powerplay for three consecutive seasons from 2017-2019. With the high-end skill set of Gaudreau, Laine, and Werenski leading the group, Columbus should be able to finish higher than their 31st overall position.
New Jersey Devils
Dawson Mercer
Mercer was on a goal-scoring tear for a stretch of last season which propelled the offence in New Jersey to new heights. With Jack Hughes entering superstar status, secondary scoring becomes the focus for a team looking to compete with the league's top teams. There should be no shortage of offensive production by the Devils with the talent they have on the ice. This bodes well for Mercer since he can be matched up against lesser opponents and take advantage of his scoring chances. The Devils forward has shown his durability playing in back-to-back 82-game seasons, showing an improvement each year in his points production. With his confidence growing, there is plenty of reason to believe he could be a 30+ goal scorer and produce north of 70 points.
New York Islanders
Jean-Gabriel Pageau
There has been an offensive deficiency in the Islanders lineup over the last several years. With the likes of Matt Barazl, Bo Horvat, and captain Anders Lee in the top six, many assume there should be more scoring chances and goals scored. The Islanders finished 22nd overall in goals scored per game last season in large part to their inability to provide secondary scoring. Pageau is known more for his two-way defensive game so we shouldn't expect elite-level production. However, with a new system and an emphasis on generating more offense, we may see the 30-year-old reach the 50-point plateau for the first time in his career. Pageau posted a career-high 43 points in the '15 -'16 season but has levelled out since reaching just 40 points in two seasons since. With a coaching change providing a fresh voice in the locker room and a new system on the ice, there is optimism on Long Island that the team can find a way back into the playoff picture.
New York Rangers
Filip Chytil
Rangers fans have patiently waited for the development of their young stars Alexis Lafreniere and Kappo Kakko in the past two seasons. Ironically, there may be another budding star in the Big Apple in 23-year-old Filip Chytil. Once he can figure out how to use his size and strength to his advantage, it should allow him to generate more scoring chances close to the net. With a 6'2'', 204 lb frame, he has a rare combination of size and skill that, if used effectively, could make him a valuable second-line player. The young Rangers forward will compete for powerplay minutes this season if he continues his strong play from last year's postseason. A 30-goal campaign is not out of the question if Chytil can maintain a similar shooting percentage to his 12.4% last year.
Philadelphia Flyers
Morgan Frost
Frost was a bonafide point scorer in his junior career (capped by a 112 point '17-'18 season with the Sault Greyhounds of the OHL). Frost saw an uptick in production resulting in a jump from 16 to 46 points in the last two seasons. The projected first-line centre has an opportunity to play against the league's elite this season which bodes as a tough task. With a strong playmaking ability and high hockey IQ, the young Flyers centre will look to build on his two-way game to lock in his spot as a core piece of Philadelphia's future. While the team remains in a rebuild, there is potential in the prospects pool that could bode well in the upcoming years.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Tristan Jarry
It is awfully difficult to deny the idea that the Penguins built to score goals. Having one of the league's best two-way forwards in Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh matches well against other top lines around the league. However, where this team lacks is defensive depth on the backend. Add in newly acquired Erik Karlsson, a pure offensive defenceman. Jarry posted a respectable 2.90 GAA and .909 SV% last season, both of which are below his career average of 2.65 GAA and a .914 SV%. Regressing to the mean could keep the Penguins in a strong position to compete for playoffs again. The question arises whether the Penguins can compete defensively with the likes of Karlsson and Letang each demanding close to 25+ minutes a night. Can Jarry re-create the Matt Murray effect and lead the Penguins on a long cup run? Simply making the playoffs alone will be a tall task, so only time will tell. Let's not forget that the Penguins missed the playoffs last season with a heartbreaking defeat at the hands of the Blackhawks on the final day of the regular season.
Washington Capitals
John Carlson
The Capitals may be nearing the end of their cup window with their aging core and limited depth on both forward and defense. However, ruling out the goal-scoring machine in Alex Ovechkin and the supreme talent of both Nicklas Bäckström and Evgeny Kuznetsov seems asinine. If Carlson can help provide Darcy Kuemper with a solid campaign to give the Capitals above-average goaltending, they can still score their way to winning games and push for a wild card position. Florida recently proved you can make a cup run from the 8th seed, meaning the "just get in" mentality applies to all teams looking to make a run for the Stanley Cup. If Ovechkin is making "John Norris" comments late into the season, the Capitals are likely in a run for a playoff position.
While the Metro Division has plenty of individual talent, these players will need to deliver strong performances throughout the season to help their teams get to the next level.
Stay tuned for series three of the division X-Factors list as we move to the Western Conference, starting with the Central.