The Price To Win In The NHL?

Jordan Trafford
Jun 18, 2020
7 min read

Updated: Jul 31, 2020

And with that… Let Phase 2 begin! On May 26th, Gary Bettman informed the hockey world of the news we have been dying to hear for months now – Hockey will be back. The lockdown is starting to ease and the light at the end of the tunnel is beginning to shine again. As professional sports anxiously await their returns to play, a thought sprung into my head surrounding the money spent on winning teams in the NHL. Is there a correlation between the combined salary of a championship winning Top 6 forward group and winning the lucrative Stanley Cup? Confusing I know – let’s re-phrase that. Can we identify a specific cap-hit percentage from a team’s Top 6 forward group that will provide the best chance of winning? After some research on the past few champions, there are a few trends that seem to correspond with the modern-day NHL. Notably, the average age of Stanley Cup winning rosters has been decreasing for six straight seasons. Now, more than ever, teams are relying on their entry-level players to perform immediately, creating relief on the team’s cap-hit. Young players are receiving greater responsibilities and GM’s are eager to get their top prospects in the lineup sooner to get production at a cheaper clip. Allocating money elsewhere to improve other weaknesses of the roster is amplified with the salary cap and teams need to be creative in order to have long-term success.

From the previous five championship teams, the lowest percentage of Top 6 forward salary to highest consists of: Chicago 36%, St. Louis 38%, 2016 Pittsburgh 39%, 2017 Pittsburgh 42%, and Washington 43%.

For those of you interested in how this may relate to this year’s playoffs, see below for the Top 6 cap-hits of the top four team in both the Eastern and Western Conference. Be aware that this was used from the latest line combinations at the stoppage of play with the addition of players returning from injury. Let’s have some fun and take a winner out of each conference based on the 39.6% average of the last five teams… Boston and Colorado. Eastern Conference

1. Boston – 38% 2. Tampa Bay – 44% 3. Washington – 47% 4. Philadelphia – 49%

Western Conference

1. St. Louis – 43%

2. Colorado – 40%

3. Vegas – 47%

4. Dallas – 42%

After viewing these numbers, the question of whether these types of analytics can be used or not deserves consideration. An exact equation may not exist to help allocate the assets of any given team but the trends should not be ignored. With that being said, let’s take a look at the Top 6 forwards of the previous five Stanley Cup winners and discuss the trends that stand out. 2018-2019 – St. Louis Blues def. Boston Bruins in Game 7 St. Louis had no business winning the cup last year, right? On January 3rd, 2019 the Blues sat dead last in the NHL and thoughts of selling at the deadline came to mind. Queue Gloria and fast forward to season’s end and the Blues proved it is possible to go from zero to hero. Despite having their ups and downs during the season, the Blues delivered several heartfelt moments during the finals run. First, Blues superfan Laila Anderson, who suffers from a rare immune disease called hemophagocytic lymphhistiocytosis (HLH) was there every step of the way supporting her favourite players and brought a tear to many when she was given the cup and her ring. Secondly, seeing Jay Bouwmeester hoist the cup was one of those hockey moments you remember forever – Ray Bourque 2.0. St. Louis is the only team in the last 5 years to win a cup without getting over 100 points in the regular season as they finished with 99 points. Binnington stepped in and showed his best Matt Murray impersonation getting the Blues back on track and being a crucial piece of the championship run. He posted a solid 2.46GAA and a .914 SV% in his 26 playoff appearances. An interesting stat – only two of the last five championship teams have had a defenseman in the top 3 scoring, Duncan Keith in 2015 and Alex Pietrangelo in 2019. Only a small number of players in the league are capable of handling both defensive and offensive responsibilities and the Blues have several on their roster; a coach’s dream. Top 6 Forwards LW - Jaden Schwartz ($5.35mil)

C - Brayden Schenn ($5.125mil)

RW - Vladimir Tarasenko ($7.5mil) LW - Zach Sanford ($875k)

C - Ryan O’Reilly ($7.5mil)

RW - David Perron ($4mil) Blues Top Scorers: 1. Ryan O’Reilly 8G, 15A - 23P 2. Jaden Schwartz 12G, 8A - 20P 3. Alex Pietrangelo 3G, 16A - 19P Conn Smythe Winner: Ryan O’Reilly

2017-2018 – Washington Capitals def. Vegas Golden Knights in Game 5 The memorable moment from this Stanley Cup Final is up for debate. The Vegas Golden Knights defied all odds and made their first finals appearance in their inaugural season while Alex Ovechkin finally got his Stanley Cup and quieted all those saying he would never win. Brayden Holtby stunned the hockey world with an all-world save and Backstrom received the hand-off from his captain. The Capitals dominated almost every category and were the better hockey team throughout the series. With the likes of Kuznetsov and Ovechkin scoring at will, there firepower was simply too much for the Knights to compete with. After their loss in Game 1, the Capitals stormed back with a vengeance and their leadership group took over. It is worth noting that the 2018 Capitals forward group had the highest cap hit amongst the 5 groups with 43% of their team salary coming from their top two lines. I would also like to take this moment to honor the 10 victims killed by the van in downtown Toronto on the day of April 23rd, 2018 ahead of Game 6 of Toronto Vs. Boston. The respect and class shown by not only MLSE but the entire NHL to play the game demonstrated an act of resiliency and integrity to the citizens of Toronto.

Top 6 Forwards LW - Alex Ovechkin ($9.5mil)

C - Evgeny Kuznetsov ($7.8mil)

RW - Tom Wilson ($2mil) LW - Jakub Vrana ($863k)

C - Nicklas Backstrom ($6.7mil)

RW - TJ Oshie ($5.75mil) Capitals Top Scorers: 1. Evgeny Kuznetsov 12G, 20A - 32P 2. Alex Ovechkin 15G, 12A - 27P 3. Nicklas Backstrom 5G, 18A - 23P Conn Smythe Winner: Alex Ovechkin

2016-2017 – Pittsburgh Penguins def. Nashville Predators in Game 6 The year of the back-to-back had Sidney Crosby winning his third Stanley Cup and second straight Conn Smyth Trophy as the Penguins defeated the Predators in Game 6 of the 2017 Finals. The Penguins were battle tested for the finals as the two series prior each required seven games. Pittsburgh defeated Washington in the Conference Semifinals and then Ottawa in the Conference Finals series. To all Sens fans, this is your friendly reminder that you were one goal away from a Stanley Cup Final before Chris Kunitz scored in double OT. Although Crosby and fellow stars carried their weight offensively, it was rookie Jake Guentzel who made a splash tying the single-year NHL playoff record for most points by a rookie with 13 goals, 8 assists for 21 points. He also set the NHL rookie record for game-winning goals in a postseason with five, just one goal behind Don Ciccarelli. Top 6 Forwards LW - Jake Guentzel ($734k)

C - Sidney Crosby ($8.7mil)

RW - Conor Sheary ($667k) LW - Patric Hornqvist ($4.25mil)

C - Evgeni Malkin ($9.5mil)

RW - Phil Kessel ($6.8mil) Penguins Top Scorers: 1. Evgeni Malkin 10G, 18A - 28P 2. Sidney Crosby 8G, 19A – 27P 3. Phil Kessel 8G, 15A - 23P Conn Smythe Winner: Sidney Crosby

2015-2016 – Pittsburgh Penguins def. San Jose Sharks in Game 6 The second Stanley Cup for Sid and the Penguins came from defeating the San Jose Sharks, a team making their first Stanley Cup Finals appearance in franchise history. The team battled with adversity throughout the playoffs but none more than rookie goaltender Matt Murray who took the reins from Marc-André Fleury. The HBK line of Haglin, Bonino & Kessel found early chemistry and provided even more depth to an already superior forward group. Who could forget the incredible “Bonino! Bonino! Bonino!” call on the Hockey Night Punjabi broadcast by Harnarayan Singh?! The line was so good that they produced close to 20% of the Penguins post-season goals, scoring 15 goals in 24 games. After the trade from Toronto, Phil Kessel didn’t only win a cup in his first year, but also led the team in playoff scoring. All Kessel, Haglin and Bonino were acquired via trade during the summer or later in the season – Nicely done Jim Rutherford. Top 6 Forwards LW - Conor Sheary ($667k)

C - Sidney Crosby ($8.7mil)

RW - Patric Hornqvist ($4.25mil) LW - Chris Kunitz ($3.85mil)

C - Evgeni Malkin ($9.5mil)

RW - Bryan Rust ($652k)

Penguins Top Scorers: 1. Phil Kessel 10G, 12A – 22P 2. Sidney Crosby 6G, 13A – 19P 3. Evgeni Malkin 6G, 12A - 18P Conn Smythe Winner: Sidney Crosby

2014-2015 – Chicago Blackhawks def. Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 6 In the 2015 Stanley Cup Finals, the Blackhawks captured their third title in five years, solidifying themselves as a modern-day dynasty. Fans may recall Duncan Keith taking a pass from Patrick Kane in the high slot during the second period of Game 6 and ultimately scoring [what would be] the Stanley Cup winning goal against Ben Bishop. Keith posted an incredible 21 points in 23 games and earned the first Conn Smythe Trophy as a defenseman since Scott Niedermayer back in 2007 for the Anaheim Ducks. For those thinking the Blackhawks would sit atop the list of highest paid Top 6 forwards, we may have been wrong. Of the group listed above, the Hawks came in with the lowest percentage of cap-hit coming from their Top 6. With Toews and Kane playing in the final year of their cap hit of $6.3 million, the dynamic group of elite playmakers hoisted the cup in one of the tightest Stanley Cup Finals of all-time. Oh, and let’s not forget Andrew Shaw’s soccer-style header goal that was disallowed… I’m sure he’ll take the Stanley Cup win instead.