2020 US Open: What to Expect from Winged Foot

The 1974 massacre. Greg Norman’s collapse. Phil Mickelson’s collapse. If you have time to park yourself on your couch from September 17-20, you will see the golf course and its US Open history get as much attention from the broadcasters as the players playing in the tournament itself. The only thing that may get in its way from another year of carnage is the unpredictable September weather in Long Island.

Courtesy: Stephen Szurlej

Let’s start with what makes the US open so difficult. The USGA has a knack for fine-tuning a golf course using four basic course setup ideas: adding length, narrowing landing areas, increasing the penalty of hitting it in the rough, and drying out the greens so they are as firm and as fast as possible. As a general rule, they seek venues where these strategies can be maximized. A good example is Torrey Pines, which, with aspirations of holding the ’08 Open, transformed from a friendly municipal course to a 7600-yard beast. It features ribbons for fairways, rough so thick there is no guarantee you would even find your ball, and greens like concrete. They have pushed the limits even further for its next hosting duties in 2021, where the course will max out at 7800 yards (?!?). It can be expected that every player will make mistakes out there. The players who will separate themselves are those who can make mistakes, take their medicine, and do the least damage to their scores.

The USGA loves coming back its roots Northeastern roots: Oakmont (9 time host), Shinnecock Hills (5 time host) and Winged Foot (5 time host). It is almost a tradition at these three venues for players to complain about course setups. Just two years ago due to the firmness of the greens, Zach Johnson declared at Shinnecock that “they lost the golf course,”. In 2007 at Oakmont, Phil Mickelson said of the rough that “It's disappointing to dream as a kid about winning the U.S. Open and spend all this time getting ready for it and have the course setup injure you.” It may make some players miserable, but it makes for a hell of a viewing experience for everybody else.

At Winged Foot, the architecture stands for itself. The course, a par 70 stands at just under 7500 yards. A.W. Tillinghast, the same architect as Scarboro Golf Club in Scarborough Ontario, showcases putting surfaces that are elevated above the level of the fairways and surrounded with beautiful bunkering and steep runoff areas. Gil Hanse has just recently completed a restoration back to these original features. A player’s option of landing a golf ball short and having the ball roll onto the green is made very difficult. The downstream effect of these features is that it places a premium on long, straight, tee shots. Drives missing the fairway will result in approach shots that are less controlled with less spin. Shorter tee shots will result in the player having to hit longer clubs into the greens, meaning that the ball will come in lower and with less spin. This does not rule out the chances of a shorter player winning, but these players will be playing towards the middle of the greens and will have to make a lot of mid-range putts. Bombers who find the fairway will have shorter clubs into the greens, and will be able to attack flags, likely resulting in more make-able putts. The fairways are not as narrow as 2019 PGA Championship host Bethpage Black, and there will be more opportunities for every player in the field to take more risks off the tee.

Courtesy: Erik Matuszewski

Winged Foot does present some birdie opportunities. The 6th, standing at 321 yards, is drive-able for most of the field depending on the hole location. The par 5 9th is reachable in 2, but a smartly placed cross bunker will be waiting to gobble up mis-hit approach shots. However, Winged Foot is a beast coming in. Johnny Miller described the last 7 holes as the hardest finishing stretch in the world. Holes 16 through 18 are the pinnacle, with three par 4s measuring 498 yards, 504 yards and 469 yards respectively. The doglegs counteract the prevailing wind, making the finish even more challenging. Expect players to be hanging on to dear life, trying to make pars and post a good score. Below are some phenomenal YouTube videos that showcase exactly what makes Winged Foot so challenging. The first video is an 18 hole flyover by the USGA which shows the strategy that they expect the players to take. The second video is drone footage captured by Andy Johnson of The Fried Egg, one of my favourite people in golf media. It features commentary by Gil Hanse, the course architect who restored Winged Foot’s greens, and Geoff Ogilvie, the 2006 US Open champion.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWl3FJN4ITg – Winged Foot 18 Hole Flyover (USGA)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qfx86KMkBy0 – Beautiful and Scary: The Greens at Winged Foot (The Fried Egg feat. Gil Hanse and Geoff Ogilvie)

Ezra Shaw, Getty Images

All in all, the West course is a scary proposition even before the USGA gets its hands on it. Once they do, they take it to another level. Winged Foot West was the first tournament golf course with a par 4 longer than 500 yards. The long, penal rough typically found at a US Open is simply longer and more penal. The fairways are narrower. The firm and fast putting surfaces are firmer and faster. The result? In the history of Winged Foot US opens, including the 1972 US Women’s Open, the score been under par only once. In 2006, the winning score was +5, with 68 being the best score for the week. This type of carnage is expected when the US Open rolls around.

There is the possibility, however, that the only factor that is uncontrollable may spoil the USGA’s idea of a brutal US open. The weather in June 2006 could not have been better for a challenging setup: every day was sunny, hot and breezy. A genie in a bottle could not have granted the USGA more optimal conditions. After rescheduling the tournament to September, such perfect conditions cannot be guaranteed. Living in Southern Ontario we have all experienced a wide variety of September weather. Some years it is hot as hell, other years show signs of an early fall. Rain is more prevalent in September than it is in June. Due to the geographical proximity, Long Island experiences similar September conditions to Southern Ontario. If it does rain, then Winged Foot will literally show its softer side. It will be easier for players to attack pins from both the fairway and rough, since they are more certain that their balls will stop quickly on the soft greens. Missing the green with an approach becomes less penal since. In general, a soggy golf course will mean that a lot more players in the mix on Sunday, since it is easier for a player to recover from a mistake. When making last minute predictions, the weather forecast will certainly play a role.

Predictions

So with all that in mind, who do we think will win the fan-less 120th US Open? My problem is that I make picks for golf tournaments like my ex-girlfriend makes picks for who she wants to win the Bachelor. I love getting mixed up with the drama that goes on between the PGA Tour players, and it almost always impacts my picks. It would be so much fun to see Brooks lift up the trophy with one hand and flip off the rest of the field with the other. Or what if Bryson gains another 40 pounds and drives all 18 greens? I am going to try to be objective with this one.

This course does not eliminate short hitters, but long hitters will always have an advantage in every tournament they enter. Look for a golfer who can hit a moon-ball with their approach shots in order to stop it quickly on the greens. Rory McIlroy would be a great pick, but it is difficult to look past his major performances since 2014. Safe picks for high finishes would definitely be Brooks Koepka, DJ, Bryson, Rahm, Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele, and Adam Scott. It feels like every major lately has involved these characters. All of these guys are unbelievable ball-strikers but will not be my number 1 pick. If the weather conditions turn cold and damp, I would write off Tiger from contention.

My objective pick will be Justin Thomas. I have watched him at last year’s Canadian Open, and his distance control is pristine. I think that his lack of success at the 2020 PGA Championship simply came down a poor week of driving. If his putter gets hot and his driver returns to form, I believe that he is the best player in the world.

My sleeper pick will be Victor Hovland, currently listed at 50-1. If he can bring his ball striking talent and even a moderate short-game then he has the ability to make his way around this tough track. He is one of the few people in the field who has won a USGA event already in his career, so he understands the patience and precision required.

No matter what happens, look for scores at most to be a few under par, and any rounds lower than 67 to be cherished by the broadcast. It will be a fun week.